19 percent chance for Scheer and the Tories, says ‘Polly’
OTTAWA — Canada’s only artificial intelligence pollster says Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have a 75 percent chance of forming a minority government when the ballots are counted two days from now.
‘Polly’ is an A.I. algorithm operated by Advanced Symbolics Inc. (ASI) of Ottawa. Unlike a traditional pollster, Polly constantly monitors hundreds of thousands conversations on social media to gauge public opinion in real-time throughout an election campaign.
Interviewed last night by TVO The Agenda host Steve Paikin, ASI’s Erin Kelly reported the Liberals’ probability of forming a minority government at 77 percent — a number since tweaked to 75 percent in a blog post on the firm’s website this morning. “If the election were held today, the most likely scenario would see the Liberals winning 145 seats,” the site reports in a posting by Devon Babin.
“The Conservatives are much less likely to get a minority government, but they do have a 19 percent chance according to Polly. If the election were held today the most likely scenario would see them taking 123 seats. There is only a 4 percent chance of any party winning a majority.”
Kelly told Paikin the Liberals still have small chance of forming a majority government — with only a five percent probability of that outcome. “That’s still out there,” she said during the broadcast (see clip above).
A 77 percent probability, while “strong,” is not as “strong as we would like to see it” in order to conclusively call the election, she also told the TVO host. “It’s not as strong as it was at this point in 2015 when we were able to call the election a month ahead of time.”
The technology forecasts, at this point, 35 seats for the NDP, 32 for the Bloc Quebecois, five for the Green Party, and one for the People’s Party of Canada, according to the ASI website.
ASI’s Polly also foresaw Kathleen Wynne’s devastating rout in Ontario last year, predicting the provincial Liberals’ loss of official party status more than a week before the June 7, 2018, election (see Paikin’s May 24, 2018 interview with Kelly, below).